It is well understood that the TV game has changed and that rules are different these days. In the U.S., a linear brand used to mean over-the-air channels — the networks and independent stations around the country — but now, viewers can get them as part of a connection package for streamers. Along with what once were deemed cable channels — AMC, MTV, Animal Planet, TMC, etc. — they are now all part of a streaming conglomeration.
Linear TV used to just mean those channels providing over-the-air delivery of TV content, which, in the U.S., meant the alphabet networks (ABC, CBS, and NBC), along with independent channels across the country all delivering content on a specific day and at a specific time.
Now, linear means any outlet delivering content at a specific day and time, via any available delivery possibility (such as HBO).
As an aside, when this reporter worked at HBO, Cinemax seemed to be the bastard child — hardly mentioned except every now and again when, say, a music special was on the imminent horizon. Now, Cinemax has become Max and HBO has been relegated to number two — but is still putting out great content.
Marc Berman, editor-in-chief of the online daily Programming Insider, who also contributes to various publications, including the Forbes.com, and is an in-demand speaker on the subject of TV, suggested, “Don’t write off linear, it’s not going to go any time soon — or ever.” He then added: “If you’re an advertiser you’re not going to abandon (traditional) linear, because it’s still the best arena to get the most eyeballs. And the problem with streaming is we don’t know who is watching, we don’t have the data — it’s speculation. That’s not to say streaming is not a hot ticket because it is.” But with that said, Berman wondered, “How are [streamers] making money out of this? They’re not exactly bringing in the big bucks [though] they’re bringing in a lot of critical accolades.”
Obviously, the arrival of streaming outlets changed the viewing landscape by allowing viewers to see what they want when they want. Not surprisingly, the “original linear channels” are facing some difficult times. As an example of viewer drop-off, Berman pointed out that, “at one time, shows such as NCIS, were drawing 20 million viewers a week. Now they’re lucky to get nine million.” This, in turn, has led to an advertising decline and more lost revenue, meaning channel costs have to be cut. Because of this, scripted content, in the main, has seen its primetime domination usurped, replaced by differing unscripted material, even including documentaries. This reduction in scripted also means a loss in revenues from the attractive U.S. domestic sales they used to get for syndicated reruns of hit shows to local TV stations, as well as being financially rewarded from global sales.
However, scripted content isn’t the only genre taking a hit. Daily talk shows in the U.S., with their highly paid hosts, could soon find some of those faces missing from the studio chairs. And it’s likely that Rachel Maddow, as good as she may be, but who receives around $20 million a year for one show a week on MSNBC, will almost certainly be amongst those hit. Late-night talk shows are also under the financial microscope. The late-night shows, in some instances, already being reduced from five to four nights, or losing the house band, as the audiences they once commanded aren’t there anymore. Little wonder that some are asking the question, “What’s left for the traditional channels?”
Should there be salary cutbacks offered to these hosts, will they refuse the pay cuts and leave, or bite their tongues and stay? Should they depart, Berman wondered, “Will the audience revolt and turn off” because the stars are not on display? Would it be more expensive to keep on-air talent, or cut their salaries, thus, lose the talent and probably more in audience, as well as ad revenue?
There’s an estimate that between 75 and 80 percent of scripted content on the linear networks in the U.S. is now being funded by foreign companies that buy American shows. Nothing demonstrates the European love for American procedurals, for instance, than German TV outfit ProSieben, which recently bought about 1,000 episodes of the NCIS family of series (the original, New Orleans, Hawaii, and L.A. spin-offs). During his keynote speech at last month’s MIPCOM, as reported by VideoAge Daily, Tony Vinciquerra, the outgoing Sony Pictures Entertainment CEO, suggested that the television industry is, “going to be very chaotic, there are going to be mergers, consolidation, sales, bankruptcies, potentially,” and as he expects, “a big shakeout,” within the next two-years.
Meanwhile FAST channels seem to be benefitting from the U.S. linear audience exodus, as they proliferate — and as the recent MIPCOM market demonstrated, its rise is also becoming very apparent elsewhere in the world — in Europe the FAST pick-up is even greater than in the U.S. Pluto, Roku and Tubi are expanding in Europe and adding Africa and the Middle East as well. Sony actually recently debuted some 54 FAST channels in Europe. While younger audiences have seemingly turned away from traditional linear in the U.S., there’s a rise in their viewing habits to AVoD and FAST in parts of Europe. In fact, there’s so much FAST action in Europe it’s now showing greater growth than in the U.S. Even Africa and the Middle East have opened up to FAST and AVoD.
Thanks to a significant increase in popularity among 15-to-34-year-olds, big AVoD and FAST services are nearing, or topping, the 15 percent mark of monthly users among the entire French population, with Pluto TV taking 26 percent of that pie.
So, just what does the future mean for all of the TV channels operating in the traditional over-the-air term of linear? In addition to the traditional linear outlets (the alphabet nets and local channels around the country and including those now airing on a streaming service), the local linear TV availability in Los Angeles, for example, comprises an impressively list of 62 TV channels, including COZI, American Crimes, Oxygen True Crime, MeTV, HSN, Fox Weather, Court TV, TBN, and Scripps News.
All of which begs the question “Who says linear TV is dead?”
(By Mike Reynolds)
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