Making predictions is a risky business. For example, VideoAge staffers bet a Corona beer that NATPE Miami would surely happen since virologists were predicting that Omicron would abate by opening day (January 18, 2022).
Obviously, VideoAge lost that bet, but not because of Omicron. NATPE officials reportedly elected to scrap this year’s market because of the larger financial loss that the NATPE organization would have incurred had the market been staged with reduced participation. (Despite the canceled market, some execs from Latin America still flew to Miami during NATPE’s dates to keep their scheduled meetings.)
To show how tricky making predictions can be, a possible bet was also lost by Goldman Sachs when, in 2017, analysts there predicted that 300,000 truck drivers would be losing their jobs because of the anticipated proliferation of self-driving vehicles. Clearly, that hasn’t yet happened. The reality in 2022 is that many more truck drivers are urgently needed. Plus, there are the poor interior and fashion designers tasked with predicting the color that will be preferred by consumers in the years ahead — information needed by fashion houses and paint manufactures. They will surely be second-guessed by social media “influencers” — no matter what they choose!
Now, VideoAge staffers are once again betting — this time a bottle of rosé — that the in-person MIPTV 2022 will be as successful as MIPCOM 2021.
The organization has already reported that more than 100 exhibitors had signed up as early as mid-February, and an informal VideoAge survey indicated that many European buyers will be flocking to Cannes between April 4 and 6.
If the momentum picks up in March, some might predict that MIPTV could attract over 2,000 participants. Buyers seem to be looking forward to reconnecting in person with independent producers and distributors and are not fretting about the reduced participation of the U.S. studios at MIPTV, which brings up a new prediction about the L.A. Screenings.
According to chatter among media analysts, after the broadcast Upfronts in New York City, which are set to take place May 16-19, the U.S. studios will screen the networks’ new season pick-ups, which will consist of a scant few new series, to a drastically reduced number of international buyers. Since the new, untested broadcast series are not expected to bring new subscribers to the studios’ international streaming services, the studios will most likely try to monetize the new season’s most sellable products on the international market — albeit with shorter windows — before “dumping” them onto their streaming platforms.
Due to a combination of little new content and fewer international buyers, the studio screenings will most likely last just a few days, possibly May 20-24. In that case, reps from independent distribution companies can be expected in Los Angeles on May 19 and 20.
The question facing the indies is where to screen since the InterContinental Hotel, their traditional venue, is closed, and the nearby Century Plaza, now reopened, is too expensive. One option being floated around is for the indies to forego expensive hotel suites and instead meet buyers in a new hotel with tables set in a large hall. This arrangement has worked well for some indies during past L.A. Screenings, and it has been a success at MIP Cancun
The industry can expect a full analysis of MIPTV 2022 and the L.A. Screenings 2022 in the March/April printed and digital editions of VideoAge.
Pictured above, a table meeting arrangement for indies at past L.A. Screenings, and a MIPTV 2022 set-up expected to match that of MIPCOM 2021
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